El Niño and Assam
El Niño does not affect all of Assam the same way, and there is no official El Niño impact level for a state or district. Below is the latest official status, the warnings in force, and the district-level evidence we hold.
Current El Niño status
NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
- Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)
- +2.1 °C
- Issued
- 8 Oct 2026
- Next update
- 12 Nov 2026
- Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage
- 25 Oct 2026
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Nov | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Oct–Dec | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov–Jan | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Dec–Feb | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Jan–Mar | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Feb–Apr | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar–May | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| Apr–Jun | 45% | 54% | 1% |
| May–Jul | 17% | 70% | 13% |
Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.
Official alerts in Assam now
- Thunderstorm with Lightning · Moderate · South Salmara district of Assam
From IMD and the State Disaster Management Authority via NDMA SACHET, as issued. All alerts
Districts
Long-term IMD rainfall averages (1951–2000) are available for 18 of 35 districts. Districts created after 2000 often have no IMD normal under their current name; we never copy another district's figures to them.
- Bajali (no district data yet)
- Baksa (no district data yet)
- Barpeta
- Biswanath (no district data yet)
- Bongaigaon
- Cachar
- Charaideo (no district data yet)
- Chirang (no district data yet)
- Darrang
- Dhemaji (no district data yet)
- Dhubri
- Dibrugarh
- Dima Hasao (no district data yet)
- Goalpara
- Golaghat
- Hailakandi
- Hojai (no district data yet)
- Jorhat
- Kamrup
- Kamrup Metro (no district data yet)
- Karbi Anglong
- Kokrajhar
- Lakhimpur
- Majuli (no district data yet)
- Marigaon (no district data yet)
- Nagaon
- Nalbari
- Sivasagar
- Sonitpur (no district data yet)
- South Salmara Mancachar (no district data yet)
- Sribhumi (no district data yet)
- Tamulpur (no district data yet)
- Tinsukia
- Udalguri (no district data yet)
- West Karbi Anglong (no district data yet)
Sources and method
Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 28 Oct 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
- District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
- ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 28 Oct 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
- District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.
VoiceOfVillage brings together official and scientific information to explain it. It is not a weather forecast and does not replace IMD forecasts, government warnings or advice from agriculture officers. In an emergency call 112.