El Niño and India's villages
The latest official El Niño status, what it can and cannot tell us about rainfall in India, and the evidence we hold for each state and district — with every source named and every gap stated.
Current El Niño status
NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
- Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)
- +2.1 °C
- Issued
- 8 Oct 2026
- Next update
- 12 Nov 2026
- Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage
- 25 Oct 2026
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Nov | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Oct–Dec | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov–Jan | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Dec–Feb | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Jan–Mar | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Feb–Apr | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar–May | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| Apr–Jun | 45% | 54% | 1% |
| May–Jul | 17% | 70% | 13% |
Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.
What El Niño does — and doesn't — tell us about a village
What El Niño is
El Niño is a periodic warming of the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It shifts winds and rainfall patterns around the world. NOAA declares an "El Niño Advisory" when the warming is under way and expected to continue.
Historical tendency India
El Niño years have often — but not always — coincided with weaker southwest monsoon rain (June–September) over India. Other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, also shape the monsoon, so the outcome in any one year and place differs.
What is not known
- There is no El Niño forecast for an individual village, mandal or district.
- El Niño does not mean drought everywhere. Heavy rain and floods can still happen.
- We do not attribute any single dry spell, heatwave or flood to El Niño.
Where to get forecasts and advice
- Weather forecasts and warnings: India Meteorological Department and the official alerts we carry from NDMA SACHET.
- Crop advice: your state agriculture department, the local Krishi Vigyan Kendra, or the Kisan Call Centre on 1800-180-1551.
Official alerts in force now
23 active official disaster or weather alerts from IMD and State Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA SACHET). These are current warnings, separate from the long-range El Niño outlook.
- Extremely Heavy Rain · Extreme · Kozhikode, Malappuram, Wayanad districts of Kerala
- Squally · Extreme · Nicobars,North And Middle Andaman,South Andamans districts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands
- Lightning · Severe · anm-kurabalakota, anm-thamballapalle, anm-bkothakota mandals
- Lightning · Severe · ctr-peddapanjani, ctr-bangarupalem mandals
- Lightning · Severe · ctr-thavanampalle Mandal
- Moderate Rain · Severe · Coimbatore, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Sivaganga, Tiruppur districts of Tamil Nadu
By state
Each state page lists its districts and the district-level evidence we hold. There is no state-wide El Niño impact level: conditions differ within a state.
- Andaman and Nicobar Islands
- Andhra Pradesh
- Arunachal Pradesh
- Assam
- Bihar
- Chandigarh
- Chhattisgarh
- Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu
- Delhi
- Goa
- Gujarat
- Haryana
- Himachal Pradesh
- Jammu and Kashmir
- Jharkhand
- Karnataka
- Kerala
- Ladakh
- Lakshadweep
- Madhya Pradesh
- Maharashtra
- Manipur
- Meghalaya
- Mizoram
- Nagaland
- Odisha
- Puducherry
- Punjab
- Rajasthan
- Sikkim
- Tamil Nadu
- Telangana
- Tripura
- Uttar Pradesh
- Uttarakhand
- West Bengal
Sources and method
Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
- District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
- ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
- District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.
VoiceOfVillage brings together official and scientific information to explain it. It is not a weather forecast and does not replace IMD forecasts, government warnings or advice from agriculture officers. In an emergency call 112.