El Niño and Madhya Pradesh

Current El Niño status

NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory

El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).

Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)

+2.1 °C

Issued

8 Oct 2026

Next update

12 Nov 2026

Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage

25 Oct 2026

Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.

Official alerts in Madhya Pradesh now

• Moderate Rain · Severe · Balaghat, Dindori, Mandla, Seoni, Sidhi, Singrauli districts of Madhya Pradesh
• Heavy Rain · Moderate · 7 districts of Madhya Pradesh
• Thunderstorm with Lightning · Moderate · Chhatarpur, Chhindwara, Damoh, Jabalpur, Katni, Maihar, Mauganj, Narsimhapur, Niwari, Pandhurna, Panna, Rewa, Sagar, Satna, Seoni, Sidhi, Tikamgarh districts of Madhya Pradesh

From IMD and the State Disaster Management Authority via NDMA SACHET, as issued. All alerts

Districts

Long-term IMD rainfall averages (1951–2000) are available for 43 of 55 districts. Districts created after 2000 often have no IMD normal under their current name; we never copy another district's figures to them.

• Agar-Malwa (no district data yet)
• Alirajpur (no district data yet)
• Anuppur (no district data yet)
• Ashoknagar (no district data yet)
• Balaghat
• Barwani
• Betul
• Bhind
• Bhopal
• Burhanpur
• Chhatarpur
• Chhindwara
• Damoh
• Datia
• Dewas
• Dhar
• Dindori
• Guna
• Gwalior
• Harda
• Indore
• Jabalpur
• Jhabua
• Katni
• Khandwa (East Nimar) (no district data yet)
• Khargone (West Nimar) (no district data yet)
• Maihar (no district data yet)
• Mandla
• Mandsaur
• Mauganj (no district data yet)
• Morena
• Narmadapuram (no district data yet)
• Narsimhapur (no district data yet)
• Neemuch
• Niwari (no district data yet)
• Pandhurna (no district data yet)
• Panna
• Raisen
• Rajgarh
• Ratlam
• Rewa
• Sagar
• Satna
• Sehore
• Seoni
• Shahdol
• Shajapur
• Sheopur
• Shivpuri
• Sidhi
• Singrauli
• Tikamgarh
• Ujjain
• Umaria
• Vidisha

Sources and method

Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.

• ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 28 Oct 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
• District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
• ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 29 Oct 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
• District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.