El Niño and Odisha
El Niño does not affect all of Odisha the same way, and there is no official El Niño impact level for a state or district. Below is the latest official status, the warnings in force, and the district-level evidence we hold.
Current El Niño status
NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
- Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)
- +2.1 °C
- Issued
- 8 Oct 2026
- Next update
- 12 Nov 2026
- Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage
- 25 Oct 2026
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Nov | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Oct–Dec | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov–Jan | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Dec–Feb | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Jan–Mar | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Feb–Apr | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar–May | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| Apr–Jun | 45% | 54% | 1% |
| May–Jul | 17% | 70% | 13% |
Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.
Official alerts in Odisha now
- Heavy Rain · Extreme · Gajapati, Ganjam, Koraput, Nabarangpur districts of Odisha
- Moderate Rain · Severe · 5 districts of Odisha
- Moderate Rain · Severe · Bhadrak, Jajapur, Kendrapara, Nuapada districts of Odisha
- Moderate Rain · Severe · Gajapati, Ganjam, Kalahandi, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Puri, Rayagada districts of Odisha
- Moderate Rain · Severe · Gajapati, Ganjam, Kalahandi, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Puri, Rayagada districts of Odisha
From IMD and the State Disaster Management Authority via NDMA SACHET, as issued. All alerts
Districts
Long-term IMD rainfall averages (1951–2000) are available for 13 of 30 districts. Districts created after 2000 often have no IMD normal under their current name; we never copy another district's figures to them.
- Anugola (no district data yet)
- Balangir (no district data yet)
- Baleshwar (no district data yet)
- Baragada (no district data yet)
- Bhadrak
- Boudh (no district data yet)
- Debagada (no district data yet)
- Dhenkanal
- Gajapati
- Ganjam
- Jagatsinghapur (no district data yet)
- Jajpur
- Jharsuguda
- Kalahandi
- Kandhamala (no district data yet)
- Kataka (no district data yet)
- Kendrapada (no district data yet)
- Kendujhar (no district data yet)
- Khordha (no district data yet)
- Koraput
- Malkangiri
- Mayurbhanj
- Nabarangpur (no district data yet)
- Nayagada (no district data yet)
- Nuapada (no district data yet)
- Puri
- Rayagada
- Sambalpur
- Subarnapur (no district data yet)
- Sundaragada (no district data yet)
Sources and method
Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 27 Oct 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
- District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
- ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 28 Oct 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
- District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.
VoiceOfVillage brings together official and scientific information to explain it. It is not a weather forecast and does not replace IMD forecasts, government warnings or advice from agriculture officers. In an emergency call 112.
