El Niño and Bihar
El Niño does not affect all of Bihar the same way, and there is no official El Niño impact level for a state or district. Below is the latest official status, the warnings in force, and the district-level evidence we hold.
Current El Niño status
NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
- Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)
- +2.1 °C
- Issued
- 8 Oct 2026
- Next update
- 12 Nov 2026
- Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage
- 25 Oct 2026
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Nov | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Oct–Dec | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov–Jan | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Dec–Feb | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Jan–Mar | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Feb–Apr | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar–May | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| Apr–Jun | 45% | 54% | 1% |
| May–Jul | 17% | 70% | 13% |
Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.
Official alerts in Bihar now
No official disaster or weather alerts for Bihar are active right now.
From IMD and the State Disaster Management Authority via NDMA SACHET, as issued. All alerts
Districts
Long-term IMD rainfall averages (1951–2000) are available for 33 of 38 districts. Districts created after 2000 often have no IMD normal under their current name; we never copy another district's figures to them.
- Araria
- Arwal
- Aurangabad
- Banka
- Begusarai
- Bhagalpur
- Bhojpur
- Buxar
- Darbhanga
- Gaya
- Gopalganj
- Jamui
- Jehanabad (no district data yet)
- Kaimur (bhabua) (no district data yet)
- Katihar
- Khagaria
- Kishanganj
- Lakhisarai
- Madhepura
- Madhubani
- Munger
- Muzaffarpur
- Nalanda
- Nawada
- Pashchim Champaran (no district data yet)
- Patna
- Purbi Champaran (no district data yet)
- Purnia (no district data yet)
- Rohtas
- Saharsa
- Samastipur
- Saran
- Sheikhpura
- Sheohar
- Sitamarhi
- Siwan
- Supaul
- Vaishali
Sources and method
Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
- District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
- ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
- District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.
VoiceOfVillage brings together official and scientific information to explain it. It is not a weather forecast and does not replace IMD forecasts, government warnings or advice from agriculture officers. In an emergency call 112.