El Niño and Siwan district
There is no El Niño forecast for Siwan district or its villages. This page shows the official Pacific status, the warnings in force here, and the local climate evidence we hold — each with the area it describes.
Current El Niño status
NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
- Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)
- +2.1 °C
- Issued
- 8 Oct 2026
- Next update
- 12 Nov 2026
- Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage
- 25 Oct 2026
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Nov | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Oct–Dec | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov–Jan | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Dec–Feb | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Jan–Mar | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Feb–Apr | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar–May | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| Apr–Jun | 45% | 54% | 1% |
| May–Jul | 17% | 70% | 13% |
Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.
Official alerts for Siwan now
No official disaster or weather alerts for Siwan are active right now.
Historical baseline Long-term average rainfall
IMD's district rainfall normals: the average for 1951–2000. They describe a typical year, not this year, and are not a forecast. The current season is October–December (northeast monsoon season); its normal here is 56.7 mm.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 137 | 339 | 288 | 240 | 43 | 8 | 5 |
- Jan–Feb: 27.7 mm
- Mar–May: 46.8 mm
- Jun–Sep (southwest monsoon): 1,004.2 mm
- Oct–Dec: 56.7 mm
- Year: 1,135.4 mm
Source: IMD District Rainfall Normal, 1951–2000 (data.gov.in, GODL-India). Matched by district name; the normals use 1951–2000 district boundaries, which may be larger than today's Siwan.
Model estimate Recent rainfall compared with normal
Recent rainfall estimates for Siwan are not available yet.
Agriculture contingency plan
We haven't added the official contingency plan link for Siwan yet. Your district agriculture office or Krishi Vigyan Kendra has the current plan and advisories.
Sources and method
Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
- District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
- ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Not connected yet (needs an API key). Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
- District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.
VoiceOfVillage brings together official and scientific information to explain it. It is not a weather forecast and does not replace IMD forecasts, government warnings or advice from agriculture officers. In an emergency call 112.