El Niño and Devbhumi Dwarka district
There is no El Niño forecast for Devbhumi Dwarka district or its villages. This page shows the official Pacific status, the warnings in force here, and the local climate evidence we hold — each with the area it describes.
Current El Niño status
NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).
- Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)
- +2.5 °C
- Issued
- 12 Nov 2026
- Next update
- 10 Dec 2026
- Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage
- 13 Nov 2026
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct–Dec | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov–Jan | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Dec–Feb | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Jan–Mar | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Feb–Apr | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar–May | 80% | 20% | 0% |
| Apr–Jun | 38% | 61% | 1% |
| May–Jul | 12% | 75% | 13% |
| Jun–Aug | 6% | 61% | 33% |
Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.
Official alerts for Devbhumi Dwarka now
No official disaster or weather alerts for Devbhumi Dwarka are active right now.
Historical baseline Long-term average rainfall
IMD's 1951–2000 district normals don't list Devbhumi Dwarka under this name — often because the district was created later. We don't copy another district's figures here. Status: insufficient data.
Model estimate Recent rainfall
ERA5 reanalysis estimates for all 11 grid cells (~28 km each) holding Devbhumi Dwarka's mapped villages, for the 30 days 20 Sept 2026 – 19 Oct 2026.
Totals ranged from 0.2 mm to 4 mm across the cells. No comparison with the 1991–2020 average for these days is computed yet, so no cell is called above or below normal; IMD's monthly normal for the district is above.
A reanalysis is a weather model constrained by observations — an estimate, not a rain-gauge reading. Source: ERA5 (ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service) via Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. Each village page shows its own cell.
Agriculture contingency plan
We haven't added the official contingency plan link for Devbhumi Dwarka yet. Your district agriculture office or Krishi Vigyan Kendra has the current plan and advisories.
Sources and method
Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 13 Nov 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
- District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
- ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 13 Nov 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
- District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.
VoiceOfVillage brings together official and scientific information to explain it. It is not a weather forecast and does not replace IMD forecasts, government warnings or advice from agriculture officers. In an emergency call 112.