El Niño and Chitradurga district

Current El Niño status

NOAA ENSO alert statusEl Niño Advisory

El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).

Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (latest month)

+2.1 °C

Issued

8 Oct 2026

Next update

12 Nov 2026

Retrieved by VoiceOfVillage

25 Oct 2026

Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · official ENSO probabilities (US Government, public domain). This is an outlook for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, not a forecast for any place in India.

Official alerts for Chitradurga now

No official disaster or weather alerts for Chitradurga are active right now.

Historical baseline Long-term average rainfall

IMD's district rainfall normals: the average for 1951–2000. They describe a typical year, not this year, and are not a forecast. The current season is October–December (northeast monsoon season); its normal here is 159 mm.

• Jan–Feb: 2.6 mm
• Mar–May: 95.1 mm
• Jun–Sep (southwest monsoon): 271 mm
• Oct–Dec: 159 mm
• Year: 527.7 mm

Source: IMD District Rainfall Normal, 1951–2000 (data.gov.in, GODL-India). Matched by district name; the normals use 1951–2000 district boundaries, which may be larger than today's Chitradurga.

Model estimate Recent rainfall

ERA5 reanalysis estimates for all 20 grid cells (~28 km each) holding Chitradurga's mapped villages, for the 30 days 7 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026.

Totals ranged from 30.8 mm to 131.5 mm across the cells. No comparison with the 1991–2020 average for these days is computed yet, so no cell is called above or below normal; IMD's monthly normal for the district is above.

A reanalysis is a weather model constrained by observations — an estimate, not a rain-gauge reading. Source: ERA5 (ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service) via Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. Each village page shows its own cell.

Agriculture contingency plan

We haven't added the official contingency plan link for Chitradurga yet. Your district agriculture office or Krishi Vigyan Kendra has the current plan and advisories.

Sources and method

Every number on these pages comes from a named dataset, with its period, the area it describes and how it was produced. We label each one: Official what an official body published, Historical baseline long-term averages, and Model estimate values from a weather model (reanalysis), which are estimates, not rain-gauge readings. Calculations are done by fixed rules, not by AI. Where we hold no data for a place, we say so instead of filling the gap.

• ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and official ENSO probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Resolution: Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (not a forecast for any place in India). Connected; last updated 11 Nov 2026. Licence: public-domain (US Government work).
• District Rainfall Normal (in mm), monthly, seasonal and annual, 1951–2000 — India Meteorological Department (via data.gov.in). Resolution: district (1951–2000 boundaries). Connected; last updated 25 Oct 2026. Licence: GODL-India.
• ERA5 reanalysis daily precipitation (via Open-Meteo) — ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, served by Open-Meteo. Resolution: 0.25° grid cell (~28 km). Connected; last updated 12 Nov 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (ERA5 / Open-Meteo).
• District Agriculture Contingency Plans — ICAR-CRIDA and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Resolution: district. Not loaded yet. Licence: source-terms.